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華爾街最負盛名的預言家Wien預測，2012年意大利和希臘將債務違約，但仍將留在歐盟，美國經濟表現更佳，標普500指數將突破1,400點，黃金將漲至1,800美元/盎司。
綜合媒體1月5日報導，2012年有什么樣的驚奇等待著我們？
如果黑石顧問合伙人公司(Blackstone Advisory Partners)副董事長Byron Wien的預言正確：意大利和希臘將債務違約，但仍將留在歐盟；標準普爾500指數將突破1,400點；美國失業率將跌至8%以下，國內生產總值（GDP）增速將超過3%；羅姆尼（Mitt Romney）將成為共和黨總統提名人。但如果有關失業率和GDP的預言成真，羅姆尼將被奧巴馬總統擊敗。
這些都是這位華爾街最負盛名的預言家、前摩根士丹利資深分析師Wien在2012年年度“驚奇事件”清單上的預言。
Wien 5日在接受采訪時表示，他仍然對2012年股市上漲、美國經濟改善、歐洲拿出一個長期計劃解決其財政問題持有樂觀態度。
他表示，“如果歐盟瓦解，歐洲將有太多大量損失。”這就是為什么他認為希臘和意大利將留在歐盟，盡管他預計希臘將違約，而意大利面臨“很大的可能性”出現債務違約。
這位資深預言家預計，隨著更多原油被從油頁巖和巖石中提取，原油價格將下跌至每桶85美元。他表示，他也仍然看漲黃金，并稱金價將漲至1,800美元/盎司。
Wien表示，他自己的投資方向包括美國股市、大型跨國公司、能源、一些藥品和科技企業。但他沒有透露具體公司名稱。
這位“華爾街的真正預言家”2011年成就相當不錯，所作出的10個預測中有8個應驗——預言失敗的部分涉及了股票和債券：他曾預測，2011年標準普爾500指數將以1,500點收尾，而10年期國債收益率將益率將上漲5%。
Wien并不是第一位認為經濟將成為奧巴馬總統是否能夠連任重要因素之一的人士。除了奧巴馬總統以外，他認為，美國選民將爆發“反現任”浪潮，這將導致民主黨掌舵眾議院，共和黨控制參議院，相當於本屆國會的一個180度轉變。
更令人驚訝的是，他認為國會將在10年內削減聯邦赤字超過1.2萬億美元。Wien 表示，“我不認為（削減赤字）可以等到2012年年底。”現在沒有人認為大選前會發生任何事情。
另外，Wien還預測，投資者將繼續買進那些看起來對本國經濟更為負責的國家的貨幣，比如挪威、新加坡和澳大利亞的貨幣。
(王媛媛 綜合編譯)
免責聲明：本文所載資料僅供參考，并不構成投資建議，世華財訊對該資料或使用該資料所導致的結果概不承擔任何責任。若資料與原文有異，概以原文為準。
世華財訊資訊中心：editor@shihua.com.cn 電話：4006744482
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/wien-oil-dropping-s-p-500-exceeding-1-400.html
Full list of Wien’s surprises, which he defines as events investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but that he says are more than 50 percent likely to occur in 2012:
1.) Crude oil falls to $85 a barrel.
2.) S&P 500 exceeds 1,400.
3.) U.S. real GDP growth exceeds 3%, unemployment rate drops below 8%.
4.) Barack Obama runs against Mitt Romney for president, Democrats win House, lose Senate.
5.) Europe develops a broad plan to solve the sovereign-debt crisis. Greece and Italy restructure their debt. Spain and Ireland strengthen their finances. A bank meltdown is avoided. European economy contracts.
6.) Computer hackers attack major financial institutions.
7.) Investors buy currencies of countries “that seem to be managing their economies sensibly,” such as nations in Scandinavia, Australia, Singapore and Korea.
8.) Congress reduces the U.S. debt by $1.2 trillion over 10 years, with cuts to defense, Medicare and agricultural subsidies as well as some tax deductions.
9.) Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ousted.
10.) Stock indexes in China, India and Brazil surge 15%-20%
Source: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110103005612/en/Byron-Wien-Announces-Ten-Surprises-2011
Byron Wien Announces The Ten Surprises for 2011
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions of a number of economic, financial market and political Surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “Surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined The Blackstone Group in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the Firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.
The Surprises of 2011
1. The continuation of the Bush tax cuts coupled with the extension of unemployment benefits has put all working Americans in a better mood. Real Gross Domestic Product rises close to 5% in 2011 driven by improved trade and capital spending in addition to stronger retail sales. Unemployment drops below 9%.
2. The prospect of increasing Federal budget deficits and rising government debt finally begins to weigh on the bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury approaches 5% as foreign investors become more demanding. Spreads with corporate fixed income securities narrow.
3. Encouraged by renewed economic momentum the Standard & Poor’s 500 rises close to its old high of 1500. A broad range of sectors participate, but telecommunications and utilities lag. With earnings improving, valuations seem low and individual investors return to equities for the first time since the financial crisis. Merger and acquisition activity becomes intense and the market reaches a blow-off euphoria. Stocks correct in the second half as interest rates rise.
4. Although inflation remains benign, the price of gold rises above $1600 as investors across the world place more of their assets in something they consider “real.” Sovereign wealth funds of countries with significant dollar reserves also become big buyers. Hedge funds keep thinking the price rise is becoming parabolic and sell their positions and some even short the metal but gold keeps climbing and they scramble back in.
5. Worried about inflation and excessive growth, the Chinese decide to use their currency as a policy tool. They manage the value of the renminbi aggressively to keep the growth of the economy below 10% and to prevent consumer prices from increasing above the 4%–5% range. The move is viewed as a precursor to the world-wide adoption of a basket including the renminbi as an alternative to the use of the dollar as the principal reserve currency.
6. Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00, wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of more institutional portfolios.
7. The housing situation improves. Although the inventory of unsold homes remains high, the oversupply is drawn down substantially, contrasting with an increase in 2010. The Case-Shiller gradually heads higher and housing starts exceed 600,000.
8. Continuing demand from the developing world and a failure to bring onstream new supply causes the price of oil to rise to $115 per barrel. The higher price at the pump fails to discourage driving, increase sales of hybrid vehicles or cause Congress to initiate conservation measures.
9. Frustrated by the lack of progress against the Taliban and the corruption of the Karzai government, President Obama concludes that whenever American troops return home, Afghanistan will once again become a tribal state ruled by warlords. He accelerates the withdrawal of most military personnel to the end of 2011. Coupled with the pullout of forces in Iraq, this will leave the Middle East without a major Western presence in the face of rising fears of terrorism.
10. Under duress Angela Merkel leads the way in European financial reform. The weaker countries, having pledged to cut their budget deficits in half by 2014, are provided additional transitional aid by the European Union (with Germany’s backing) and the International Monetary Fund as long as they implement their austerity programs, increase some taxes and still show modest growth. The European financial crisis becomes less of a concern. The policies put in place prove psychologically satisfying to the financial markets but harmful in the longer term because they are palliative and do not represent solutions.
“ALSO RANS”
11. While Afghanistan and Iraq cool down as trouble spots, Pakistan and North Korea flare up. The former continues to be a troublesome breeding ground for terrorists and the latter initiates further hostile attacks on South Korea. China does not become involved in a major way and the international community seems helpless.
12. The broad international sanctions on Iran finally begin to work. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad enters into negotiations to scale back the country’s nuclear weapons development program in exchange for financial aid and foreign investment. Pressure from the country’s youth to provide more economic opportunity is the key factor in the change in policy. Talk about bombing by Israel or the U.S. subsides.
13. Rising interest rates and a strong economy allow the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen. Although the European financial crisis abates as austerity programs and higher taxes are put in place and Japan avoids falling back into recession, America becomes the developed market of choice for global investors.
14. Sarah Palin announces she will seek the Republican nomination for President amidst the cheers of Tea Party supporters. More moderate Republicans fear her candidacy will diminish the chances of their party winning in 2012 and try to blunt her efforts. Rick Perry, governor of Texas becomes a contender. Mike Bloomberg is mentioned. On the Democratic side, liberals feel Obama has betrayed them and desperately try to find a challenger. With the economy improving the prospect of a second term for Obama becomes more likely.
15. The Russian government decides it is the laggard of the emerging markets and steps up its efforts to become more investor friendly. The Kremlin agrees to further nuclear weapons reduction and provides assurance to companies willing to invest there that the rule of law will prevail. The Russian equity market soars.
16. Laws related to marijuana usage are liberalized in more states. Recognizing that the drug may not be addictive, the public’s attitudes have evolved over the last thirty years, and this, along with a desire to alleviate the over-crowding of jails, causes state legislatures to take a more liberal position. Drug abuse groups are outraged.
17. Infrastructure problems in the United State become serious. New York subways are inoperative for days as a result of an electrical problem in the signal system. Gridlock snarls Los Angeles freeways, and to encourage cooperative commuting, high-occupancy vehicles are required to carry three or more people. State and local governments complain they lack the funds to deal with the problems and Washington refuses to help.
18. A major state fails to pay interest on a municipal bond issue because of a lack of funds, causing havoc in the municipal bond market.
19. In spite of fears of tenth anniversary terrorist attacks, 9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance.
20. While climate change activists remain shrill, the issue recedes in importance in the United States. Cold weather prevails during the winter and the summer heat is not oppressive. Support increases for a broader use of natural gas by utilities and public transportation and its price rises to $6.00 per mcf. In Europe and Asia however, environmental initiatives continue to move ahead.
華爾街最負盛名的預言家Wien預測，2012年意大利和希臘將債務違約，但仍將留在歐盟，美國經濟表現更佳，標普500指數將突破1,400點，黃金將漲至1,800美元/盎司。
綜合媒體1月5日報導，2012年有什么樣的驚奇等待著我們？
如果黑石顧問合伙人公司(Blackstone Advisory Partners)副董事長Byron Wien的預言正確：意大利和希臘將債務違約，但仍將留在歐盟；標準普爾500指數將突破1,400點；美國失業率將跌至8%以下，國內生產總值（GDP）增速將超過3%；羅姆尼（Mitt Romney）將成為共和黨總統提名人。但如果有關失業率和GDP的預言成真，羅姆尼將被奧巴馬總統擊敗。
這些都是這位華爾街最負盛名的預言家、前摩根士丹利資深分析師Wien在2012年年度“驚奇事件”清單上的預言。
Wien 5日在接受采訪時表示，他仍然對2012年股市上漲、美國經濟改善、歐洲拿出一個長期計劃解決其財政問題持有樂觀態度。
他表示，“如果歐盟瓦解，歐洲將有太多大量損失。”這就是為什么他認為希臘和意大利將留在歐盟，盡管他預計希臘將違約，而意大利面臨“很大的可能性”出現債務違約。
這位資深預言家預計，隨著更多原油被從油頁巖和巖石中提取，原油價格將下跌至每桶85美元。他表示，他也仍然看漲黃金，并稱金價將漲至1,800美元/盎司。
Wien表示，他自己的投資方向包括美國股市、大型跨國公司、能源、一些藥品和科技企業。但他沒有透露具體公司名稱。
這位“華爾街的真正預言家”2011年成就相當不錯，所作出的10個預測中有8個應驗——預言失敗的部分涉及了股票和債券：他曾預測，2011年標準普爾500指數將以1,500點收尾，而10年期國債收益率將益率將上漲5%。
Wien并不是第一位認為經濟將成為奧巴馬總統是否能夠連任重要因素之一的人士。除了奧巴馬總統以外，他認為，美國選民將爆發“反現任”浪潮，這將導致民主黨掌舵眾議院，共和黨控制參議院，相當於本屆國會的一個180度轉變。
更令人驚訝的是，他認為國會將在10年內削減聯邦赤字超過1.2萬億美元。Wien 表示，“我不認為（削減赤字）可以等到2012年年底。”現在沒有人認為大選前會發生任何事情。
另外，Wien還預測，投資者將繼續買進那些看起來對本國經濟更為負責的國家的貨幣，比如挪威、新加坡和澳大利亞的貨幣。
(王媛媛 綜合編譯)
免責聲明：本文所載資料僅供參考，并不構成投資建議，世華財訊對該資料或使用該資料所導致的結果概不承擔任何責任。若資料與原文有異，概以原文為準。
世華財訊資訊中心：editor@shihua.com.cn 電話：4006744482
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/wien-oil-dropping-s-p-500-exceeding-1-400.html
Full list of Wien’s surprises, which he defines as events investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but that he says are more than 50 percent likely to occur in 2012:
1.) Crude oil falls to $85 a barrel.
2.) S&P 500 exceeds 1,400.
3.) U.S. real GDP growth exceeds 3%, unemployment rate drops below 8%.
4.) Barack Obama runs against Mitt Romney for president, Democrats win House, lose Senate.
5.) Europe develops a broad plan to solve the sovereign-debt crisis. Greece and Italy restructure their debt. Spain and Ireland strengthen their finances. A bank meltdown is avoided. European economy contracts.
6.) Computer hackers attack major financial institutions.
7.) Investors buy currencies of countries “that seem to be managing their economies sensibly,” such as nations in Scandinavia, Australia, Singapore and Korea.
8.) Congress reduces the U.S. debt by $1.2 trillion over 10 years, with cuts to defense, Medicare and agricultural subsidies as well as some tax deductions.
9.) Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ousted.
10.) Stock indexes in China, India and Brazil surge 15%-20%
Source: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110103005612/en/Byron-Wien-Announces-Ten-Surprises-2011
Byron Wien Announces The Ten Surprises for 2011
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions of a number of economic, financial market and political Surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “Surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined The Blackstone Group in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the Firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.
The Surprises of 2011
1. The continuation of the Bush tax cuts coupled with the extension of unemployment benefits has put all working Americans in a better mood. Real Gross Domestic Product rises close to 5% in 2011 driven by improved trade and capital spending in addition to stronger retail sales. Unemployment drops below 9%.
2. The prospect of increasing Federal budget deficits and rising government debt finally begins to weigh on the bond market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury approaches 5% as foreign investors become more demanding. Spreads with corporate fixed income securities narrow.
3. Encouraged by renewed economic momentum the Standard & Poor’s 500 rises close to its old high of 1500. A broad range of sectors participate, but telecommunications and utilities lag. With earnings improving, valuations seem low and individual investors return to equities for the first time since the financial crisis. Merger and acquisition activity becomes intense and the market reaches a blow-off euphoria. Stocks correct in the second half as interest rates rise.
4. Although inflation remains benign, the price of gold rises above $1600 as investors across the world place more of their assets in something they consider “real.” Sovereign wealth funds of countries with significant dollar reserves also become big buyers. Hedge funds keep thinking the price rise is becoming parabolic and sell their positions and some even short the metal but gold keeps climbing and they scramble back in.
5. Worried about inflation and excessive growth, the Chinese decide to use their currency as a policy tool. They manage the value of the renminbi aggressively to keep the growth of the economy below 10% and to prevent consumer prices from increasing above the 4%–5% range. The move is viewed as a precursor to the world-wide adoption of a basket including the renminbi as an alternative to the use of the dollar as the principal reserve currency.
6. Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00, wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of more institutional portfolios.
7. The housing situation improves. Although the inventory of unsold homes remains high, the oversupply is drawn down substantially, contrasting with an increase in 2010. The Case-Shiller gradually heads higher and housing starts exceed 600,000.
8. Continuing demand from the developing world and a failure to bring onstream new supply causes the price of oil to rise to $115 per barrel. The higher price at the pump fails to discourage driving, increase sales of hybrid vehicles or cause Congress to initiate conservation measures.
9. Frustrated by the lack of progress against the Taliban and the corruption of the Karzai government, President Obama concludes that whenever American troops return home, Afghanistan will once again become a tribal state ruled by warlords. He accelerates the withdrawal of most military personnel to the end of 2011. Coupled with the pullout of forces in Iraq, this will leave the Middle East without a major Western presence in the face of rising fears of terrorism.
10. Under duress Angela Merkel leads the way in European financial reform. The weaker countries, having pledged to cut their budget deficits in half by 2014, are provided additional transitional aid by the European Union (with Germany’s backing) and the International Monetary Fund as long as they implement their austerity programs, increase some taxes and still show modest growth. The European financial crisis becomes less of a concern. The policies put in place prove psychologically satisfying to the financial markets but harmful in the longer term because they are palliative and do not represent solutions.
“ALSO RANS”
11. While Afghanistan and Iraq cool down as trouble spots, Pakistan and North Korea flare up. The former continues to be a troublesome breeding ground for terrorists and the latter initiates further hostile attacks on South Korea. China does not become involved in a major way and the international community seems helpless.
12. The broad international sanctions on Iran finally begin to work. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad enters into negotiations to scale back the country’s nuclear weapons development program in exchange for financial aid and foreign investment. Pressure from the country’s youth to provide more economic opportunity is the key factor in the change in policy. Talk about bombing by Israel or the U.S. subsides.
13. Rising interest rates and a strong economy allow the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen. Although the European financial crisis abates as austerity programs and higher taxes are put in place and Japan avoids falling back into recession, America becomes the developed market of choice for global investors.
14. Sarah Palin announces she will seek the Republican nomination for President amidst the cheers of Tea Party supporters. More moderate Republicans fear her candidacy will diminish the chances of their party winning in 2012 and try to blunt her efforts. Rick Perry, governor of Texas becomes a contender. Mike Bloomberg is mentioned. On the Democratic side, liberals feel Obama has betrayed them and desperately try to find a challenger. With the economy improving the prospect of a second term for Obama becomes more likely.
15. The Russian government decides it is the laggard of the emerging markets and steps up its efforts to become more investor friendly. The Kremlin agrees to further nuclear weapons reduction and provides assurance to companies willing to invest there that the rule of law will prevail. The Russian equity market soars.
16. Laws related to marijuana usage are liberalized in more states. Recognizing that the drug may not be addictive, the public’s attitudes have evolved over the last thirty years, and this, along with a desire to alleviate the over-crowding of jails, causes state legislatures to take a more liberal position. Drug abuse groups are outraged.
17. Infrastructure problems in the United State become serious. New York subways are inoperative for days as a result of an electrical problem in the signal system. Gridlock snarls Los Angeles freeways, and to encourage cooperative commuting, high-occupancy vehicles are required to carry three or more people. State and local governments complain they lack the funds to deal with the problems and Washington refuses to help.
18. A major state fails to pay interest on a municipal bond issue because of a lack of funds, causing havoc in the municipal bond market.
19. In spite of fears of tenth anniversary terrorist attacks, 9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance.
20. While climate change activists remain shrill, the issue recedes in importance in the United States. Cold weather prevails during the winter and the summer heat is not oppressive. Support increases for a broader use of natural gas by utilities and public transportation and its price rises to $6.00 per mcf. In Europe and Asia however, environmental initiatives continue to move ahead.
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